Khatami in, Saudis Skeptical

Yesterday Mohammad Khatami officially declared he would run in the June presidential elections. Thanks to Marc Lynch who flagged an important article from a regular columnist in Asharq al-Awsat, a newspaper that while not official, has ties to the more ‘liberal’ wing of the Al Saud. For a bit more on the newspaper and its track record of supporting the Saudi line, check out Andrew Hammond’s article in Arab Media & Society (shameless plug alert) from fall of 2007. Below is my translation of the article (with a few less important parts omitted):

We don’t want Khatami to win the presidency
by Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed

There is a sense of enthusiasm and cautious optimism since former Iranian president Muhammad Khatami announced that he would run in the Iranian presidential elections. For many, Khatami represents a peace-loving moderate Iranian political model following a long series of conflict-seeking leaders. This is correct, yet to stake anything on Khatami is a mistake, not because of the reformist leader himself, but because of the Iranian power structure. Indeed, the system is composed such that it doesn’t permit a popular but politically weak president like Khatami to steer Iranian politics in a way he sees fit. The proof of this is his previous presidency [1997-2005] in which he suffered serious, humiliating setbacks at the hands of extremist elements within the system. This included the closure of newspapers and magazines affiliated with him, barring candidates from this faction from running, and harassment of his staff – to the point where he was marginalized and left the presidency without achieving anything important that he had promised the Iranian people and was elected to do.

As for the current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he truly belongs to the ruling regime; he belongs to the Revolutionary Guard which has become more powerful than at any time in the past, and more involved in domestic and foreign affairs. He is closer to the ruler who wields true power – the supreme leader Sayed Ali Khamenei. It is thus better to keep Ahmadinejad in power than to hope for a president like Khatami….
And while Islamist reformers might still be the preferable choice for winning the election, if they win, this still would not be cause for much celebration because they will be doves without wings. If there is to be a real agreement (or not) it must be with the true holders of power.