Will Ward
In the new Arab Public Opinion Poll released yesterday Shibley Telhami’s team surveyed 4087 individuals across six Arab states and the numbers are not looking great for Iran. The incidence of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad being listed as a “most admired” foreign leader dropped from 2008. Respondents also were more likely to list Iran as a “threat” and support international pressure to curb its nuclear program.
In his talk, Marc Lynch hits it on the head in attributing this to the propaganda campaign in Egyptian and Saudi media that has gone into overdrive in the last year or two. I would only add that this campaign is not limited to state media, but has often carried over to religious figures like Qaradawi who have also helped turning up the anti-Iran/ anti-Shia rhetoric in recent months. The fact that Ahmadinejad’s year on year figures dropped more sharply with Egypt included (-7%) than with it excluded (-4%). should give pause to those who might worry about Iran attempting to gain influence in Cairo by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
I’d be fascinated to see polling data on some of the countries in the region with warmer relations with Iran – Oman, Syria, Iraq. But the holy grail would be some solid data on wider Arab attitudes towards Iran across the Sunni- Shi’a divide to better test the reams of ‘Shi’a crescent’ style punditry that puts sectarian indentification in the analytic drivers seat.
The above image is taken from the slides presented at the Brookings event. You can download them here (PDF), and watch the video recap here.
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