Monthly Archive for December, 2009

Amid Bickering, GCC Says Wants To Be Heard on Iran

Published on December 19, 2009 in Uncategorized. 1 Comment

According to an Op Ed in Friday’s Pan Arab Al-Hayat (”Gulf Doubts Continue on Iran Intentions, Request Participation in Dialogue”, 18 Dec.), GCC members last week called for the West (5+1 countries) to actively include the body in its decision-making on Iran.

According to statements issued during the event, the GCC as an organization has no interest in negotiating with Iran on nuclear issues directly (most of the GCC states have acknowledged Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy), but called on the West to incorporate Gulf Arab views, and on Iran to respect international laws and obligations. Bahraini Minister of Foreign Affairs was quoted at another event on the opening day of the Summit as saying “strengthening sanctions on Iran was ‘not a fair measure’”, given the dialogue itself had been severely handicapped by the lack of active participation by the Arab Gulf States. Even as Congress voted to implement penalties on foreign companies found to be selling Iran refined fuel, many in the US Administration are thought to be looking for a way to back down on implementing immediate sanctions, for fear that this will further harden Tehran’s already highly defensive position, and accelerate enrichment.  U.S. Asst. Secretary for NEA, Jeffrey Feltman, responding to the GCC statements said from the region (paraphrased) that the US recognises there are some differences in views with respect to Iran policy, and that he would make sure the message was heard in Washington.

All of this underscores the continued chaos and cross-currents that characterize the international response to Iran’s nuclear activities, whether within the US government, the West, or locally.  One might be tempted to give the GCC somewhat more credit as a policy organ if summit proceedings hadn’t been taken up with certain member states’ mutual recriminations, and failed attempts to decide the venue of the next summit. –EDC

Note from Djibouti

Published on December 13, 2009 in Uncategorized. 1 Comment

Iran continues to deploy soft power in the Horn, sponsoring a recent Iranian trade fair (October), and offering some 1m in loans to finance the building of a new Parliament building and Commercial Centre (2004).  In the wake of the departure of Royal/Dutch Shell and Total from the Djiboutian/Ethiopian market, local service stations now bear the insignia of OiLibya, a marketing arm of Libya’s National Oil Company. Neither country is a stranger to the Horn, but a strange juxtaposition, next to American and French forces, and loads of Gulf businesses.  Further indication of how everything is connected…–EDC

Candid Questions at Azad U.

Published on December 13, 2009 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments

Tabnak.ir carried a piece last week describing a particularly candid Q&A between Hashemi Rafsanjani and students at Azad Islamic University in Mashad.  During the meeting, Rafsanjani was asked why he had remained ’silent’ on events of the last few months.  “I did not remain silent”, Rafsanjani replied, ”my positions are well known.” Rafsanjani expressed dismay at the ‘extremism’ that has enveloped all sides of the political spectrum in the wake of elections. The Chairman of the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council, said further he had faith in the power of the Iranian people, as it was they who accomplished the Islamic Revolution–but that in deciding their course of action, all sides must act within the context of the law.   –EDC

Tabnak on Iran-Iraq Water Tensions

Published on December 9, 2009 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments

iran_iraq_water

Water resources shared between Iran and Iraq are becoming a serious source of tension between the two countries.  An article (Farsi) published yesterday on Iran’s Tabnak site gives an Iranian take on the increasingly sharp conflict over claims that runoff from Iranian oil refineries and petrochemical plants at Abadan is polluting the shared waterway, known to Persian speakers as the Arvand River and Arabs as the Shatt al-Arab.

Tabnak’s efforts to paint the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya story as biased (translated excerpts below) seem to belie a genuine Iranian sensitivity to Iraqi public opinion, particularly in the heavily Shia south.  In October, Al-Jazeera reported on an Iranian shipment of fresh water to Basra citizens, no doubt also an attempt at damage control with Iraqis.  While Iran hardly bats an eye taking on the west over its disputed nuclear program, Tehran seems much more sensitive to criticism closer to home.

-WW

Iraqis blame Arvand River Pollution on Iran

Medical and university officials in the Iraqi province of Basra have accused Iran of polluting the Arvand River. According to the Tabnak correspondent in Iraq, medical and university officials in Basra have accused Iran of polluting the waters of the Arvand River.  These officials announced that “Very dangerous petrochemical poisons from the Abadan refinery running into the Arvand river, and entering Iraqi waters have seriously polluted the Shatt al-Arab / Arvand River to the point where its name should be changed to “The Poisoned River.”

Dr. Malik Hassan, a representative of the Basra Ocean Sciences University, stated: “The deadly poisons that have entered the Arvand River and Shatt al-Arab waterway in Iraq are very dangerous, and we have seen an increase in cancers, and diseases of the liver, spleen, digestive tract, and other serious diseases in the southern parts of Iraq, especially Siba, Sayhan, Faw, Zabir, and Basra.”

Despite the pollution and cancer cases of more than 50,000 people in Basra as a result of American use of depleted uranium weapons in the 1991 and 2003 wars, Dr. Hassan asked high-ranking Iraqi officials to put pressure on Iran, and stop rising pollution levels in the Arvand River.

Likewise, Dr. Faris ‘Omara, a doctor in this southern Iraqi province, speaking on an al-Arabiya talk show stated, “With its two petrochemical and oil facilities on the Abadan shores, Iran has poisoned the Arvand River, resulting in the increased the deaths of fish.”…

This [Al-Arabiya] report was broadcast without any mention of the massive pollution that flows from the Iraqi side of the Arvand River.  Iraqis, with their own worn down petrochemical plants, have been severely polluting the two waterways that run into the Persian Gulf since the early 1990s….

Friday Fun

Published on December 4, 2009 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments

pishnehad

Found this on the Kayhan website (the London-based opposition Kayhan, not the conservative Iranian paper of the same name).  The  caption reads “The Islamic Republic’s suggestion to Google”  For Farsi speakers, the author, reformist blogger Farhad Heyrani, has some more cartoons on his site.

-WW

Iran and the Dubai Debt Crisis

Published on December 2, 2009 in Security and Trade. 3 Comments

dubai sunsetI have been scanning Iranian media over the last few days, trying in vein to find a juicy story that explores Iranian perspectives on the unfolding Dubai debt crisis.   No luck.   Much of the Iranian coverage I have seen has been rehashings of wire service stories that don’t really add much to what’s out there in English.

Why aren’t Iranian media paying much attention?  One possibility (as suggested by an IranGCC co-contributor) is that Iran needs all the allies it can get now, and is reluctant to crow about Dubai’s misfortune.   I’m more inclined to say its a symptom of the short shrift that foreign economic news tends to get in Iran’s press.  In any case, Dubai should be a much bigger story in Iran.

The crisis triggered by Dubai World’s request for a six-month repayment standstill on its debt, precipitated by a crash in overheated property values and the credit crunch, will affect Iran and Iranians in several ways.  A quick overview:

Remittances: There are tens of thousands of  Iranian nationals and Emiratis of Iranian origin living in Dubai and a number of Iranian institutions (a hospital, elementary schools, a branch of Azad Islamic University, the list goes on).  While Iranians will not be hit as hard as Indians, Pakistanis or Filipinos  working in the emirate, many will lose their jobs in waves of layoffs.

Property holders: Wealthier Iranians, too, were caught up in the property bubble that is now bursting – no  doubt underwater on mortgages or out down payments on developments that will no longer be built.  Dubai will surely lose cache as the place for vacation or investment properties, which will likely put a bigger damper on retail sales.  Shoppers at the Mall of the Emirates Zara will likely be hearing a lot less Farsi for the next few years.

Banking and Transactions: Iranian banks are not among the top countries with exposure to Dubai World’s debt; most are European, so the banking crisis is not likely to spread across the Gulf.   Yet Dubai has long been an offshore hub for Iranian transactions, a role that has intensified as U.S. sanctions began more aggressively targeting Iranian banks.   (The U.S. also has a program at Treasury intended to shut down banking opportunities  for Iranians in Dubai).   Several analysts have been floating the possibility that one of the things Abu Dhabi will demand in return for bailing out Dubai will be a crackdown on Iranians doing business in the emirate.

I am skeptical of the “Abu Dhabi Iran Crackdown” thesis  for two reasons.   One is that Iranian trade and investments are one of the pillars underpinning Dubai’s recent growth; to alienate Iranian investors, shoppers, property holders would be to freeze out one of the main populations that has made Dubai the hub it is today.  Secondly, the volume of trade is so vast (and often informal) that it policing such an agreement would be almost impossible.   The pressure from Abu Dhabi on Dubai to cut Iran ties may very well be there, but this will likely amount to a slap on the wrist (indeed, there were  reports after the recession began of Dubai visa troubles  for a handful of Iranian businessmen).  But don’t expect Iranian business out of Dubai any time soon.

-WW

photo courtesy of Flickr user faceymcface1 under a CC license.