Comments on: Note from Djibouti http://irangcc.com/2009/12/13/note-from-djibouti/ Sat, 08 Jan 2011 11:14:14 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Ready When Recycled « Djab Bouti http://irangcc.com/2009/12/13/note-from-djibouti/comment-page-1/#comment-888 Ready When Recycled « Djab Bouti Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:27:50 +0000 http://irangcc.com/?p=1079#comment-888 [...] Note from Djibouti Published on December 13, 2009 in Uncategorized. 1 Comment thought to start the blog with a recent post from ‘Iran in the Gulf’: Iran continues to deploy soft power in the Horn, sponsoring a recent Iranian trade fair (October, 2009), and offering some 1m in loans to finance the building of a new Parliament building and Commercial Centre (funding committed in 2004).  On a recent trip, I noticed a group of Iranian tourists. In the wake of the departure of Royal/Dutch Shell and Total from the Djiboutian/Ethiopian market, local service stations now bear the insignia of OiLibya, a marketing arm of Libya’s National Oil Company. Neither country is a stranger to the Horn, but a strange juxtaposition, next to American and French forces, and loads of Gulf businesses.  Further indication of how everything is connected…–EDC What are Iran’s interests in the Horn, exactly?  Iranian vessels have been taken by Somali pirates.  The Iranian national shipping company sends a large number of ships through the Suez canal each year, en route to Valetta, Tripoli and elsewhere. The Somali piracy issue is as much a problem for them as for other countries. More interesting perhaps is the above-described direct aid, in places where the US and other countries have a large military presence.  If Iran controls Hormuz, who controls the Bab El Mandeb?  Western forces based in Djibouti would appear to be the closest answer. Perhaps they want a better view of what’s going on in Yemen, or an entrypoint into the Arabian Peninsula. Or perhaps it’s ’simply’ about cultivating friends in strange places, that one day might be useful? –EDC [...] [...] Note from Djibouti Published on December 13, 2009 in Uncategorized. 1 Comment thought to start the blog with a recent post from ‘Iran in the Gulf’: Iran continues to deploy soft power in the Horn, sponsoring a recent Iranian trade fair (October, 2009), and offering some 1m in loans to finance the building of a new Parliament building and Commercial Centre (funding committed in 2004).  On a recent trip, I noticed a group of Iranian tourists. In the wake of the departure of Royal/Dutch Shell and Total from the Djiboutian/Ethiopian market, local service stations now bear the insignia of OiLibya, a marketing arm of Libya’s National Oil Company. Neither country is a stranger to the Horn, but a strange juxtaposition, next to American and French forces, and loads of Gulf businesses.  Further indication of how everything is connected…–EDC What are Iran’s interests in the Horn, exactly?  Iranian vessels have been taken by Somali pirates.  The Iranian national shipping company sends a large number of ships through the Suez canal each year, en route to Valetta, Tripoli and elsewhere. The Somali piracy issue is as much a problem for them as for other countries. More interesting perhaps is the above-described direct aid, in places where the US and other countries have a large military presence.  If Iran controls Hormuz, who controls the Bab El Mandeb?  Western forces based in Djibouti would appear to be the closest answer. Perhaps they want a better view of what’s going on in Yemen, or an entrypoint into the Arabian Peninsula. Or perhaps it’s ’simply’ about cultivating friends in strange places, that one day might be useful? –EDC [...]

]]> By: William deB. Mills http://irangcc.com/2009/12/13/note-from-djibouti/comment-page-1/#comment-873 William deB. Mills Fri, 25 Dec 2009 14:46:52 +0000 http://irangcc.com/?p=1079#comment-873 Washington's long quest to "teach Iran a lesson" has had a real impact. Iran is learning a lesson that Washington has long since forgotten - that positive reinforcement is more effective than threats and insults. Under unrelenting U.S./Israeli pressure to kowtow, Iran is learning to soften its rough edges, offer economic incentives, and practice diplomacy. I leave it to Iran area specialists to explain why modern Iranian politicians have seemed so inept at the diplomatic game. My sense from Roman sources is that the great old Iranian empires weren't too smooth at diplomacy either, though that may just be a bias of those histories (Romans too put the emphasis on force). In any case, I wonder if anyone else is getting the impression that Washington is putting Tehran through a diplomatic (in the Metternich/Talleyrand sense) finishing school that will make Tehran a much more formidable regional player in the near future than it has been with its "shoot-myself-in-the-foot" attitude of the last generation. I would suggest that this is an important issue likely to take Washington by surprise (e.g., Ahmadinejad's Nov. visit to his buddy Erdogan and Ali Larijani's tete-a-tete this week with that stalwart Shi'ite revolutionary Mubarak). Your note is a helpful additional piece of information on this issue. Let's discuss it further... Washington’s long quest to “teach Iran a lesson” has had a real impact. Iran is learning a lesson that Washington has long since forgotten – that positive reinforcement is more effective than threats and insults. Under unrelenting U.S./Israeli pressure to kowtow, Iran is learning to soften its rough edges, offer economic incentives, and practice diplomacy.

I leave it to Iran area specialists to explain why modern Iranian politicians have seemed so inept at the diplomatic game. My sense from Roman sources is that the great old Iranian empires weren’t too smooth at diplomacy either, though that may just be a bias of those histories (Romans too put the emphasis on force).

In any case, I wonder if anyone else is getting the impression that Washington is putting Tehran through a diplomatic (in the Metternich/Talleyrand sense) finishing school that will make Tehran a much more formidable regional player in the near future than it has been with its “shoot-myself-in-the-foot” attitude of the last generation.

I would suggest that this is an important issue likely to take Washington by surprise (e.g., Ahmadinejad’s Nov. visit to his buddy Erdogan and Ali Larijani’s tete-a-tete this week with that stalwart Shi’ite revolutionary Mubarak). Your note is a helpful additional piece of information on this issue. Let’s discuss it further…

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