Emirates Airline and the aircraft leasing firm LCAL, both Dubai-based, are exploring the postponement and cancellation of orders of Boeing 787 Dreamliners in advance of the show.

Meanwhile, the attention-getting Eurofighter Typhoon, Europe’s most advanced fighter jet, is making its first appearance in Dubai.  Saudi Arabia already has 72 of them from a 2007 deal worth $8.86 billion.  As in years past, there will be more than a little bit of keeping up with the GCC Joneses in evidence for 2009— Qatar, the UAE and even Oman have all expressed an interest in placing orders for the Eurofighter.

The Dubai Air Show follows the 9^th International Defence Exhibition and Conference (IDEX), held every other year in Abu Dhabi, the largest such event in the Gulf.  Journalist Robert Fisk penned an account of the 2001 IDEX in his book “The Great War for Civilisation,” (something of a doorstop, the description begins on page 926 out of a total 1283 pages).   Fisk spares little effort in hiding his disgust. He stops to talk with Mikhail Kalashnikov, the aging inventor of the AK-47, then manning a stall in the Russian pavilion.   Kalashnikov suggests a time in the future when his weapons “will be no more used or necessary.”  To say the least, Fisk is doubtful.  The author then moves on to the Iranian pavilion where he finds an arms dealer, Morteza Khosravi, selling a missile called the “Horror of Death.”  Khosravi repeats a line familiar to contemporary Iranian discourse: Iran, a peaceful state, has weapons and will also sell them, but each is true only for the purposes of self-defense.

At present, Russia is considering the sale of S300 missiles to Iran.  The S300 is capable of shooting down cruise missiles and aircraft— under pressure from Washington,  and to the exasperation of Iranian officials, the order has been held up for months.  Russia is also weighing sales to the other side of escalating tensions—Saudi Arabia may soon spend $2 billion on S400 missile defense from the Kremlin.

In an October 10^th interview, former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal explained, “We are concerned not just as a government but as a people because geographically Iran is next door to us.”  As the receipts for military hardware pile up in Dubai over the next week, one could be forgiven for losing their sense of scale. Theories of deterrence may well drive sales but they will also go ignored— Iran’s annual military budget is a paltry $7.31 billion.  That amount of money, even with some impossibly deft maneuvering around sanctions, is merely enough to buy Tehran several dozen Eurofighter Typhoons.

-SW

A response to the latest controversy from Arab leaders and their media: Don’t make claims on Iranian land lest you be faced with counter-claims

Asr-e Iran: The latest Arab recriminations against Iran on the Bahrain issue are the principal reason for writing this short essay that was published on both the Persian and Arabic sections of the site.

Three things can be said regarding the small state of Bahrain:

1. Denying history

It is a historical reality that, at one time, the island of Bahrain was a part of Iranian territory, the southernmost part of Iran. This is an issued that history has settled. Yet at the same time, it is possible to feign ignorance and ignore history; one might pretend that Bahrain, over the last 40-50 years, came into existence by rising up from under the sea!

2. Accepting history while rejecting the status quo

In a different view, it is possible to accept historical reality while resisting the current situation, thus saying that it is correct that Bahrain, as an independent nation, is a member of the international community,yet there was once a time when it was part of Iranian territory, and must once again re-join its motherland. It is clear that this viewpoint is not consistent with twenty-first century realism.

3. Accepting history and the status quo

Thus, we acknowledge Bahrain’s Iranian past, yet we now also officially recognize its independence, a position that both conforms to historical reality and takes the current situation into account.

Yes! It is correct that Bahrain was once part of Iran, its fourteenth province, however over the course of history it gained independence, and Iran’s government at that time officially recognized it (Iran recognized Bahrain one hour after the announcement of independence) and has also recognized its membership in the UN as an independent nation….

If we wanted to make a claim over all the lands that were formerly part of Iran, we should also include from Central Asia to Afghanistan and Pakistan, all areas of the southern and western Persian Gulf, and sections of modern-day Turkey and Iraq. Yet this would be a hostile action that would never yield anything….

What did we say and why are the Arabs so upset?

Clearly, we cannot ignore “history,” and there is no escaping from “today.” To accept both history and the current situation is the rational choice.

The latest statement of Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri, an advisor to the Supreme Leader, was nothing more than a statement of historical fact. He had said that once Bahrain was connected with Iran and was counted as the fourteenth province.

Despite this, Arab states and media outlets connected with them raised such a fuss that you would have thought Gaza had been attacked!…

Will history be changed by the Arabs publishing headlines and statements attacking Iran in solidarity with Bahrain? Indeed, if history were capable of being changed, wouldn’t Iranians already have taken steps to return Bahrain to its original territory [of Iran]?

Indeed, those who would take such agitated offence to the path of history are weak and lack identity to the point that they can’t put up with anything short of a revision of the past half century of history….

Be accurate! Nateq-Nouri said “Bahrain was counted as the fourteenth province of Iran.” His use of the number fourteen signals that he was talking about past history. If he wanted to talk about Bahrain rejoining modern-day Iran, he would have to have said it is the thirty-first province (Note to Arab countries: Iran currently has thirty provinces.)

That said, I will close with two points more important than the article itself:

1. Because there was no new issue regarding Bahrain, and all this talk was over a universally-accepted historical fact, we must search elsewhere for a cause for all the controversy created by the Arab states. It is Arab leaders’ jealousy over increasing Iranian regional influence on one hand, and on the other the desire to wipe away the bitter memories of their treacherous silence during the 22 days of bloodshed inflicted on the oppressed people of Gaza….

2. If the Arab countries persist in raising territorial claims on Iran over the three islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Mousa, in their distortion of the historical name of the Persian Gulf, and in their bad intentions regarding Iranian Khuzestan, a popular and uncontrollable reaction inside Iran will be take shape and be reinforced – an upheaval that will undoubtedly affect the foreign policy of Iran.

Therefore, for those who truly desire peaceful coexistence, it is best that they relinquish their claims lest they be faced with counter-claims. The choice is up to the Arabs.